FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
May 8, 2018
Contact: Ted Bordelon
New Polling Data Show Hans Keirstead Best Positioned to Defeat Rep. Dana Rohrabacher
Poll Shows Keirstead as Best Chance to Prevent Top-Two Republican Finish
(Washington, D.C.) -- Today, 314 Action Fund and data-scientist-led polling firm Change Research released the results of a poll of likely voters in California’s 48th District, showing Keirstead leading other Democrats in the race before message and taking the lead ahead of incumbent Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher following messaging on all candidates.
A balanced number of messages were provided for Rohrabacher, Keirstead, Rouda and Baugh.
Rohrabacher Keirstead Rouda Baugh Siddiqui
Initial Horserace 27 19 11 17 4
2nd Horserace 24 29 12 23 3
3rd Horserace 25 25 11 21 6
The data also show that Keirstead stands to gain the most from paid communications, moving from 19% to 29% after a positive messaging battery, while Democratic primary opponent Harley Rouda moves only 1 point and is left in a distant 4th place after both positive and negative messaging.
Director of Communications, Theodore Bordelon, released the following statement:
"It’s clear from this poll that Harley Rouda is going to be the spoiler candidate for Democrats in CA-48, a top pick up opportunity. This poll shows voters have serious concerns with Harley Rouda’s past business practices, from profiting from predatory and unscrupulous real estate deals with Wells Fargo to firing an employee with cancer to save health care costs. To unseat a long-time incumbent like Rohrabacher -- and to prevent a nightmare top-two Republican finish in this primary -- we’re going to need the strongest possible Democratic candidate in the driver’s seat, and that is Hans Keirstead.”
Rouda’s negatives -- particularly information about the millions he made by partnering with big banks like Wells Fargo to push homeowners into purchasing homes they could not afford -- turn off many voters in the 48th District, stagnating his support and causing his initial supporters to move their support. 45% of voters find this information a “very convincing reason to oppose Rouda,” and nearly 67% feel that it is a very or somewhat convincing reason to oppose him.
Hans Keirstead remains the best positioned Democrat to clinch the primary and prevent a top-two Republican finish.
Positive messaging about Harley Rouda doesn’t move the needle for voters, while positive messaging about Keirstead separates him from the field -- putting him above even Rohrabacher.
84% of Keirstead's initial supporters continue to support him at the end of the poll, compared with 56% of Rouda's. This suggests that Keirstead is likely to remain in the top tier, while Rouda's soft support suggests he hasn't consolidated the support of his voters.
Half of the voters who switched to Keirstead were initially undecided, and half initially answered Rouda, suggesting Keirstead’s unique background as a neuroscientist effectively positions him to capture a broader segment of the electorate as a “change” candidate.
Topline memo from Change Research can be found by clicking HERE.
Registered voters in California’s 48th Congressional District were solicited, between May 2-3, in a survey conducted in English. Change Research applied proprietary Bias Correct technology to solicitations in order to yield a mostly representative sample. Incomplete responses, unregistered voters, and voters outside of CA-48 were filtered, leaving a sample of 590. Results based on 590 respondents who self ID as registered voters living in CA-48, and who answered most of the questions. Sample demographics are close to the electorate for age, gender, and ethnicity. Post-stratification done on age, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. Margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is +/- 4%.
314 Action Fund is a registered federal political action committee. 314 Action is the largest and only resource specifically created for scientists and STEM professionals seeking assistance running for office. 314 Action was founded by members of the STEM community, grassroots supporters and political activists. Formed in July 2016, 314 Action has over 400,000 active members and donors across the United States. 314 Action is concerned that STEM education in the United States is falling further and further behind the rest of the world, that our political leaders continue to deny scientific facts and that Congress fails to fully fund scientific research so we can solve pressing issues. For more information, visit 314action.org