May 7, 2026
(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) — This week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced 17 new rating changes in Congressional Districts across the nation showing competitive races getting bluer each day as we approach the midterms.
The latest rating changes feature 3 districts where pro-science candidates are running, including former NASA Chief Bale Dalton (FL-07), public school math teacher Jake Johnson (MN-01), and environmental scientist Jamie Ager (NC-11).
“Republicans are more vulnerable than ever this cycle—and 314 Action candidates are in the best position to flip seats,” said Erik Polyak, Executive Director of 314 Action. “STEM candidates are the most trusted candidates on the ballot and have the ability to rise above the partisan fray by leading with solutions based on evidence—not ideology. As Republicans double down on unpopular policies and pledge deeper cuts to healthcare to pay for Donald Trump’s endless war, more voters will turn to no-nonsense candidates they can trust—and that’s who we stand for at 314 Action.”
Earlier this year, 314 Action released a memo highlighting six Congressional races to watch, which highlighted FL-07, MN-01, and NC-11.
State of Race:
- Florida’s 7th Congressional District moves from Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Bale Dalton is a Navy Captain with over 23 years of public service. He flew special operations missions in Iraq and Africa, provided combat air support with Navy SEALs in Afghanistan, and later served as Chief of Staff at NASA, managing 16,000 civil servants across 14 different facilities throughout the country. In Q1, Dalton raised $344,000, compared to the less than $75,000from Rep. Cory Mills’ campaign.
- Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District moves from Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Jake Johnson is a public school math teacher with 20 years’ experience in the classroom and a respected union leader who helped negotiate improved working conditions for more than 1,000 employees. In Q1, he raisedmore than $470,000, which includes nearly $200,000 more from small-dollar donors than Rep. Brad Finstad.
- North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican
Jamie Ager is a fifth-generation farmer and sustainable agriculture entrepreneur from Western North Carolina. He runs a local meat company employing 25 people and works with dozens of farmers across the region. In Q1, Ager outraised incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards, posting over $950,000 to Edwards’ $484,000 cash on hand. A January poll conducted by Impact Research showed Ager in a 1-point lead over Edwards (45-44).